Southeast Asia can be taken as an indicator of China's peaceful rise. Since the US started to rebalance to the Asia-Pacific to contain China after 2008, this region is turning into an arena for competition. Washington keeps driving a wedge between China and other claimants of the South China Sea and is getting more involved in the internal affairs of some regional countries, especially those which are in the process of political transformation.

Washington's growing expansion has inflicted a lot of pressure on China's plan for peaceful development, as some Southeast Asian countries, which have territorial disputes with China in the South China Sea, are leaning on Washington's leverage in the region to alleviate their concerns about China's rise. The trend has been increasingly manifesting itself in the reclamation disputes recently.

The stress against China, on the one hand, comes from other claimants to the disputed sea, such as Vietnam and the Philippines, which keep challenging China's sovereignty and maintaining de facto administration over some islands under the disguise of victimhood. On the other hand, more pressures come from non-claimants, such as the US, Japan, India and Australia, which are striving to solidify their place in the game by claiming they have "significant interests" in the region.

Washington has shown its intention to link the South China Sea disputes up with its "pivot to Asia" strategy. By dramatizing its alliance with the Philippines through military drills, the US is trying to "rationalize" its presence in the South China Sea. What's more, the US is accelerating the process. In late June, the US Congress granted President Barack Obama with fast-track authority for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a new set of economic standards which are believed to be designed to marginalize China's growing economic influence.

In this context, the US will sign the pact with other 11 members currently going through the negotiations as soon as possible. Once the TPP is set up, China will be dealing with a front organized by the US and its allies in bigger dimensions. Washington can make a huge step forward to rebalance, or more precisely contain, China's rise and enlarge its influence in the region.

The ongoing state transformation and political evolutions of some Southeast Asian nations are increasingly important in regional situation, but is happening in a generally unfavorable way to the US.

In Myanmar, opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi's candidacy for presidency has been blocked by the Myanmese government, which is a setback for both the country's democracy and US interests. Not long ago, Suu Kyi's historic visit to China, to some extent, means that Washington's clout has been undermined.

In Thailand, the most long-term ally of the US in Southeast Asia, the military-backed government has put off a general election till 2016 in a way to buy more time to consolidate its administration, which is not in line with Washington's preaching for "democracy." Besides, recent years have seen China and Thailand engaging in closer relations in many aspects, which has counteracted Washington's traditional leverage in Thailand in part.

In Vietnam, its leadership will go through a reshuffle earlier next year. Although China and Vietnam had a bitter row last year over South China Sea disputes, the bilateral relationship soon recovered and witnessed much fewer squabbles. In May, General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam Nguyen Phu Trong visited China and both sides signed a series of agreements which are constructive to building mutual trust.

Washington has also put a lot of efforts into cozying up to Hanoi, such as inviting Trong to visit the Oval Office, where none of his Party chief predecessors had ever gone. However, from his words and deeds in the US, Trong showed remarkable prudence in approaching the US, trying its best to understate China factor in their bilateral ties.

Washington is struggling to maintain its leverage, though generally speaking, the US still prevails over China in terms of influence in Southeast Asia. As for most ASEAN countries, their inertia in depending on the US in security issues cannot be easily reversed by the massive economic benefits brought by closer China-ASEAN relations. The US will continue to be influential in the near future, but change is happening.

The author is a research fellow with the Charhar Institute and a research fellow with the Maritime Silk Road Institute, Huaqiao University. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn

原文链接：http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/931755.shtml